California still has weeks or months to go before its peak fire season as crews battle hundreds of blazes sparked by extreme heat and intense lightning.
A massive heat wave baked the Golden State on top of a record dry winter in the north and unusually warm spring statewide. Then, areas got pummeled by thousands of lightning strikes in recent days.
With big fires already burning, scores of blazes exploded, burning hundreds of thousands of acres and forcing people to flee their homes in the dark. The outcome in the Bay Area is pretty disastrous, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.
"This is looking like autumn 2017 or 2018 to me personally," he said of those record-breaking years for California wildfires.
While areas in the south had a wetter winter, any benefit may be short lived.
Things got so hot that the landscape doesn’t really know about those wet months anymore, Swain said. Meanwhile, the rain gave vegetation a boost, leaving lots behind to burn.
“In some ways, we might be seeing the worst of both worlds,” Swain said.
Warmer, drier falls
With the 2020 rainy season weeks or more likely months away, relief wasn't expected anytime soon. Instead, offshore winds, which typically signal a peak in the fire season, likely will kick up in a matter of weeks.
On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor dubbed nearly 80% of California as abnormally dry or under more severe drought conditions. That's up from 66% a week ago.
Recently, the state has experienced a shift toward drier autumns and the current outlook suggests more of the same, according to Swain.
"This existing fire siege on top of the seasonal outlook for autumn, which was already warmer and drier than average, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of fire season in California," he said.
“Unfortunately, I think this is just the beginning of what is likely to be a very prolonged California fire siege.
'It was just gone'
Crews battled 367 wildfires statewide by mid-week, including nearly two dozen major blazes.
State fire officials reported the largest, dubbed the SCU Lightning Complex, had burned 137,475 acres in parts of Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties by Thursday morning.
Containment figures grew for some Southern California fires, including the Lake Fire in northern Los Angeles County and the Apple Fire in Riverside County. But even as those large blazes turned a corner, others sparked.
As they did, competition for resources increased in a state stretched thin by wildfires and shorter staff rosters because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Monday afternoon, flames erupted in grass and light brush near Piru Lake on the eastern edge of Ventura County.
"Within minutes, it was up the slope, over the ridge and it was gone," said Chad Cook, an assistant chief with Ventura County Fire Department.
The out-of-control blaze dubbed the Holser Fire that soon had swept through canyons and into Los Angeles County was just the latest example of August's fast-moving explosive fires.
As the heat wave dragged on, it zapped any moisture left in the brush still recovering from a years-long drought, he said. This year's bumper grass crop has become like tinder for a campfire.
By Thursday morning, the fire had reached 3,000 acres and was 65% contained.
"If this continues and we move into our fall months without any rain and see Santa Ana wind season, we could be in for a very, very explosive fall," Cook said.
A century without fire
That's nothing new in recent years for some areas of the state. But in the last week, flames chewed through spots that have not burned in a century, according to Swain.
Stretches along the northern coast typically get socked in with fog this time of year, keeping areas cool and generally more wet. The heat wave, however, dried up that coastal forest.
The high pressure system that's raised temperatures and triggered rolling blackouts also created conditions for these uncharacteristic fires, said Crystal Kolden, a fire scientist at UC Merced.
Where the fires are burning, how they ignited and the dry conditions in the coast range – "it's definitely unusual in a state where fire tends to be pretty normal," she said.
The heat wave itself was not the norm, from how long it stuck around to the time of year.
"It is late enough in the summer that it will continue to have lasting impacts into the fall," Kolden said. "It will be hard for the vegetation to recover from this."
Cheri Carlson covers the environment for the Ventura County Star. Reach her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260.
